Lindy Effect – Things That Last
A useful heuristic for predicting the future.
The Lindy Effect gets its name from one of the many delis of New York, where comedians gathered to gossip and bet on how long Broadway shows would stay open. They found a surprising pattern: the longer a stage show had already been running, the longer it was expected to continue.
This effect applies to many non-perishable things, like technologies or ideas. It states that life expectancy is proportional to current age. To put it simply: when something exists for X years, it’s likely to survive another X years.
I use this simple heuristic to think about the future, and to decide what to write about. The way we think and communicate is unlikely to change because of how our brains are structured.
Here are three useful lenses through which to apply it:
Skills to Acquire
Technologies change rapidly, and no one can state with certainty how far AI will progress, but there are useful skills to focus on that pass the Lindy test. These are skills that have been with us for thousands of years.
Writing, communicating, public speaking, the ability to work with people, and problem-solving are all likely to stay. These skills are Lindy-proof because they depend on human biology, not technological progression.
Publishing Channels
You are reading this article in an email or on a website because those mediums pass the Lindy test.
The first email was sent in 1971, and it’s still the main medium for managing online accounts and receiving content. These mailboxes are here to stay for another 50 years. It’s not as strong an indication as writing (thousands of years) or spoken language (hundreds of thousands).
Today’s social media content distribution evolved into a model where a handful of companies control what users see and consume. I lean towards media where the change in algorithms is not going to influence my readers.
Inevitable Change
The world changes, and new technologies replace old ones. It’s not a rule that if something is with us for X years, it’s always going to be there for us.
While Lindy is a valuable heuristic for evaluating technology, it also serves as a great reminder: timeless skills like reading and writing simply change their medium. They remain relevant.
ChatGPT launched in November 2022 and has been around for about three and a half years. Lindy predicts it will survive at least another three and a half. I bet it’ll be much longer than that.
The Lindy Effect is a valuable heuristic for predicting what endures, but it is a clue, not a guarantee.
What are the relevant skills that are likely to stay with you for the next X years?
I hope you’ll find the Lindy Effect useful to guide your focus.
Thanks for reading,
— Michał
P.S. The series How I Met Your Mother used a term called Date-Time Continuum, introduced by the character Barney Stinson. It perfectly mirrors the Lindy Effect: never make plans further into the future than you’ve been dating.
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