Second-order Thinking - Mental Model
How pausing and asking yourself — ”And then what?” — levels up your decision-making skill.
Engineering managers are paid to make good decisions and second-order thinking helped me with this tremendously.
In September 2019, when I got promoted and took over the Ruby on Rails unit, all I wanted was to keep everything working as it was with the previous manager. Keeping teams happy and growing — that was my job.
The first important decision came knocking on my door right after I had started.
For years the team had had monthly meetings with knowledge sharing presentations but we were really struggling to find engineers willing to present. The issue was that the team was approaching 100 people, so these meetings were no longer small and cosy. One of our senior leaders proposed to open them up to an even broader audience and rename them to Backend Meetings, connecting people from other technology units.
I agreed to proceed; the Rails Meeting ceased to exist.
The results of the decision were immediate (first-order consequences) and satisfactory as we did not struggle to find participants. Problem solved?
After a few months we realised that Backend Meetings were even more difficult to maintain. People missed their old meetings, and my team had no single place to discuss important announcements specific to us.
Second-order thinking is a mental model where we consider more than just one immediate result of our decisions. As its name states — we also look at potential future results (second-order consequences).
Practice
We often rush into actions without pausing to think and analyse.
There are two practices that can help us explore possible options. However, be cautious of overthinking, as it may lead to decision paralysis.
What I personally prefer is considering the reversibility of a given decision. If it is easy to reverse, act fast. If it is difficult to revert, more time is needed to decide.
Pause for a moment and ask:
And then what?
Whenever you decide or consider different scenarios, ask: And then what? Repeat this process multiple times to discover first, second, or even third-level consequences.
For example, we need to decide today whether to add an extra feature before the afternoon demonstration. However, if we choose to do so, we will have to cut corners to ensure it is ready.
1st order: (and then...) — The feature works correctly during the demo.
2nd order: (and then...) — This one-off feature is unexpectedly widely used and negatively impacts the performance, security, and maintainability of the entire application due to the way it was implemented.
This is a simple example, but “And then what?” can apply to any situation.
10-10-10 Rule
The 10-10-10 rule, introduced by Suzy Welch, is a time-bound approach for second-order thinking.
Consider the consequences of the option you choose:
In 10 minutes?
In 10 months?
In 10 years?
This approach is suitable for handling short-term negative consequences. For example, consider changing the company-wide software development life-cycle:
In 10 minutes, there may be resistance, and the transition could be chaotic. You might face criticism.
In 10 months, it becomes optimised and streamlined, and engineers are satisfied.
In 10 years, which is quite a stretch for software, the delivery processes have evolved several times, building on the initial change.
You can also adjust the time frame to hours, days, or weeks based on your needs.
Summary
We revived Rails Meeting after 22 months, although it took much longer than it should have. It came back in a refreshed form, with clear ownership. In hindsight, cancelling it was a mistake as I did not consider the long-term consequences.
Second-order thinking focuses on the long-term impact rather than just immediate results.
Each time you are about to make a decision, pause and ask: And then what?
I hope reading this will have a positive impact on you in the next 10 minutes, 10 months, and maybe even 10 years from now.
Thank you for reading!
Michał
PS Practising second-order thinking may benefit you in the future. Be kind to your future self.
PPS My interest in mental models has been growing over the years thanks to Farnam Street. Their podcast, The Knowledge Project, and their books. Second-order Thinking was one of the first mental models I learned.
Post Notes
Discover Weekly — Shoutouts
Articles that might help you explore new perspectives which I have read this week:
“Contributing to Open-Source to accelerate your growth” from
by — Sergio shared his experiences and tips on contributing to open-source projects. It resonated with me greatly. For all technical individuals who wish to build up their skills and, as a side effect, help the community.“4 essential steps to take before making any technical decision” from
by — A thoughtful, step-by-step approach to important technical decisions — I find many helpful analogies with the ‘general’ decision-making process.“Make Remote Work, Great Again” from
by — I advocate for remote work, as it has been my default for most of my career. Alvaro did a great job debunking possible concerns.“Distracting software engineers is much more harmful than you think” from
by — A great reminder of Paul Graham’s ‘Maker’s Schedule, Manager’s Schedule’ combined with insights from ‘Deep Work’ by Cal Newport, in the context of software engineering.
"Consider the consequences of the option you choose:
In 10 minutes?
In 10 months?
In 10 years?
This approach is suitable for handling short-term negative consequences. For example, consider changing the company-wide software ". This is very handy.
"Second-order thinking focuses on the long-term impact rather than just immediate results." - this is key!
Great article and thank you for including my latest article in your top picks!